National Conference 2008

Pathways To Successful Investing - AIA National Investors Conference Papers - 27 to 30 July 2008

On this page:

Session Index

Author Index

This page contains an index for the papers presented to the National Conference 2008 on the Gold Coast in July, 2008.

Where authors provided the AIA with copies of their papers, a link to the presentation is provided so you may download them if you wish Links to the available presentation material are provided after the entry.

Note: The Powerpoint presentations have been converted to *.pdf format

To view the presentations, please login, or if you are not a member then please consider joining the AIA.  Find out more on the Member Benefits page.


 Session Index

  • Plenary Sessions
  • Stream 1:    Advanced Technical Analysis
    This stream is aimed at the intermediate to experienced investor. In these two sessions Regina Meani, one of Australia’s top exponents of technical analysis, will outline in detail how to use various charting techniques to time buying and selling of specific stocks.
  • Stream 2:    ASX Sectors
    This stream will examine most of the important sectors of the ASX. Discussion on each will include their comparative performance to other sectors; pros and cons; the outlook for the sector and the major stocks within the sector. By following this stream you will gain a comprehensive coverage of the Australian share-market.
  • Stream 3:    Climate Change & Investments
    In the long run climate change will have some effect on investments and in these three sessions we will investigate these effects; in broad terms initially, and more specifically in subsequent sessions, those stocks that will benefit and those that will suffer due to climate change.
  • Stream 4:    Portfolio Construction
    These three sessions will offer a variety of presentations – one a theoretical approach to asset allocation based on using correlations to minimise risk; one a practical demonstration of putting together a high income portfolio of ASX stocks and a third in which three AIA members will talk about how they would allocate $1M in a simulated portfolio.
  • Stream 5:    Property
    This stream will offer three unique presentations not covered at recent AIA conferences. One will be on creating cashflow from residential property; one on creating positive returns on low cost housing; and the third will compare property syndicates to REITs (LPTs).
  • Stream 6:    Share Selection
    There is more than one way to skin a cat and the same applies when selecting shares. In this stream you will have the opportunity to hear from both professionals and investors about how they go about the process of selecting shares. Do they use fundamental analysis, technical analysis, software applications or a combination?
  • Stream 7:    Technical Matters
    Perhaps considered the least exciting part of investment but estate planning; taxation issues and compliance for self managed super funds are all essential matters for investors to address.
  • Miscellaneous Sessions
    Please note there are seven presentations which are not aligned to a particular stream.

Plenary Sessions

Set Your Investing Path To Your Future – Plenary Session
Ashley Ormond, CEO, Investing 101 and Author.

Ashley will lay the foundation for some of the themes which will be addressed in later sessions – for example the different approaches; global themes and active versus passive investing. The market has delivered great returns and through analysis of long-term historical trends Ashley will show you why the market is still on track for the future and that individual investors can easily access and reap the rewards if they stay on the path, avoid all the short term "noise" and diversions, and think strategically for the long term.

Presentation (PDF 260KB)

Global Economies & Market – Plenary Session
Dr Chris Caton, Chief Economist, BT Financial Group

This session will look at the world and Australia’s economic performance and prospects and what investors need to think about.  Chris will discuss a range of economic issues, including the US and China – what’s important; how is the new Government doing as an economic manager; the outlook for interest rates, the share market and exchange rates.

Presentation (PDF 258KB)

Climate Change – Plenary Session
Richard Gibbs, Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics, Macquarie Group Limited

Climate Change - Understanding the dimensions and impact of the emerging revolution in policies aimed at countering the effects of global warming
In the past few years there has been a growing awareness of the perceived need to respond to the threats to economic growth and prosperity of global climate change. Richard will examine the many facets of climate change policy and the likely impacts on the global business and investment environment.  He will also highlight the need for informed investors to clearly understand the incidence and consequences of a move towards low carbon economic activities. 

Presentation (PDF 214KB)

A Scientific Analysis of the Australian Stock Market - Plenary Session
Robert Vagg, AIA Member

Using common scientific methods, a mathematical model of the Australian stock market has been constructed based on the ASX All Ordinaries Price Index. The model reflects both long-term earnings growth and decade-long economic cycles while allowing current market risk to be quantified. It displays the course of highest probability for the Index throughout its 133-year history and may be used for future projections.

Presentation (PDF 1,307KB)

How To Make Better Investing Decisions - Plenary Session
Colin Nicholson, BEc SF Fin, Author

The great investors think differently. They have learned to avoid some of the natural errors and biases, to which we all fall victim by doing what seems natural. It is not easy to change the habits of a lifetime. The first step is to become aware of the mistakes we are making. Colin will take us through some of the key findings from the relatively new field of behavioural finance and suggest practical strategies we can use to improve our investment decision-making ability. Much of the academic work in this area of study is relatively difficult for investors to understand. Colin will strip away the jargon and explain the key ideas in everyday language.

Presentation (PDF 292KB)
Paper (PDF 52KB)

Emerging Markets – Plenary Presentation
Brigette Leckie, Head of Investment Market Research, Perpetual Investments

In 2007 Emerging Markets offered investors the best returns globally. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, China, India) and other emerging markets in South America, Asia and Eastern Europe have led the way after decades of comparatively poor returns and extreme volatility. Is there a changing of the guard in economic terms? What’s driving these changes, how much notice should we take of them? This session offers an analysis that in the long term could make big differences, if followed, to the returns of portfolios.

Presentation (PDF 383KB)

Why Australia Needs a Stronger Culture of Shareholder Activism – Plenary Presentation
Stephen Mayne, The Mayne Report more info..,

Stephen will summarise the key corporate governance issues facing listed Australian companies in 2008 and the performance of the so-called “director’s club”. He will also assess what the new Rudd government means for investors and the strengths and weaknesses of the Australian economy in these times of economic turbulence.

Presentation (PDF 144KB)

 Stream 1:    Advanced Technical Analysis

 How to Profit from Technical Analysis Using Trend Lines, Patterns & Indicators – Advanced Technical Analysis Stream
Regina Meani, Author & Journalist

In this two hour workshop Regina will provide an in-depth presentation on trend line analysis; how to locate useful patterns; how to identify tops and bottoms and fine tuning entry and exit points with indicators. Bring your pad and pen to this workshop.

Presentation (PDF 1,492KB)

 Stream 2:    ASX Sectors

 The Mining Services Sector – ASX Sectors Stream
John Lawlor, Senior Research Analyst, Ord Minnett

The mining services sector is one of the big success stories of the resources boom. Everyone knows about BHP and RIO, but not everyone knows about the growth of the companies that supply services to the big miners. This session will examine this group of companies, their performance and prospects.

Presentation (PDF 112KB)

 A High Yield Alternative to Traditional Fixed Interest – ASX Sectors Stream
Barry Ziegler, Fixed Income Research Analyst, Citi Smith Barney

Barry will outline the traditional fixed income market in Australia and the development of the ASX Listed hybrid securities market. He will explore traditional fixed income investments, the positives and negatives, then move on to the new ASX listed hybrid securities market where he will examine the opportunities for investors to increase yield from income products. The hybrid securities market offers investors a high yielding alternative to traditional fixed interest investments although there are risks that will be outlined.

Presentation (PDF 155KB)

 Using ETFs In Your Investment Portfolio – ASX Sectors Stream
Jonathan Morgan, Business Development Manager, ASX

The ASX now has listed over 14 international ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) with more to follow. Combined with the existing StateStreet and Gold ETF products investors can gain exposure to domestic, international indices and commodities through listed products. Jonathan will provide an overview of ETFs and the simple way in which these products can be incorporated into your portfolio with one transaction.

Presentation (PDF 364KB)

 Five Strategies for the Biotech Investor – ASX Sectors Stream
David Blake, Co-Editor, Bioshares

How can investors generate successful investment performance from biotech stocks? There are many different types of pharmaceutical and biotech stocks to select from, and there is a no 'one size fits all' approach to investing in this sector. Several different strategies are discussed, reflecting the variation in business models, co-investor factors, liquidity parameters, industry and market settings and corporate maturity that occurs amongst biotech companies. Examples of biotech business failure are also investigated in the context of investment strategy design.

Presentation (PDF 149KB)
Paper (PDF 23KB)

 The Banking Sector – ASX Sectors Stream
Justin Scattini, Ord Minnett

Banks have been hard hit early in 2008 as the credit/debit crisis unfolds around the globe. How have Australian banks fared overall in the sub-prime (and following?) crises? What of their prospects looking ahead for a few years? Will they return as staples in a balanced portfolio? And which of them offers the best value? Justin will examine the banks as important elements of our portfolios.

Presentation (PDF 955KB)

 Resources & Materials Sector – ASX Sectors Stream
Ron Cameron, Senior Resources Analyst, Ord Minnett

Having long ago identified that fundamental discounted cash flow analysis of projects was the best way to identify value in the resources and materials sector, Ron believes investors can reduce risks when investing in companies in the resources sector by ensuring as far as possible that the supply/demand situation for the commodities they produce or explore for are favourable; the companies themselves have suitably experienced people and are in strong financial shape; have a relatively low cost structure and have a favourable net present value (NPV) relative to their share price. These companies are most likely to gain the ongoing support of investors, especially in times of more conservative investing attitudes.

Presentation (PDF 301KB)

 The Retail Sector – ASX Sectors Stream
Justin Scattini, Ord Minnett

The retail sector has done very well in recent years (some parts at least!). In this session Justin will look at the retail sector and the main companies within it, looking back as well as looking to future prospects and the drivers of growth.

Presentation (PDF 590KB)

 Stream 3:    Climate Change & Investments

 Climate Change – What’s The Big Deal?– Climate Change Stream
Dr Ian Woods, Fund Manager, AMP Capital Investors

In the first of two sessions, Dr Ian Woods, Senior Research Analyst for the AMP Capital Sustainable Funds, Australian Equity Team, will address the state of play of climate change in Australia. Ian will also explain emissions trading and outline the investment risks.

Presentation (PDF 211KB)

 Climate Change – Potential Winners & Losers – Climate Change Stream
Dr Ian Woods, Fund Manager, AMP Capital Investors

It’s inevitable that our response to global warming will offer both new opportunities to some companies and be detrimental to others. Ian Woods will attempt to anticipate the sectors which will either be positively or negatively impacted, and within them specific types of companies that are particularly worth considering or avoiding for long term investment.


Presentation (PDF 159KB)

 Stream 4:    Portfolio Construction

 Asset Allocation & Correlations – Portfolio Construction Stream
Scott Francis, Financial Planner, A Clear Direction Financial Planning

Over the past 5 years the recipe for financial success in Australia has been simple.  Have Australian shares in your portfolio. And lots of them. We all know that times will change, and people who take the time to think about building a portfolio with a number of different asset classes in your portfolio, such as global shares, listed property, venture capital and private equity, global listed property and direct property. Scott will set out the case for building long term portfolios with multiple asset classes, and will consider the science behind how different asset classes interact to build and effective investment portfolio.

Presentation (PDF 96KB)
Asset classes analysis (PDF 38KB)
The right portfolio (PDF 71KB)

 Portfolio Design Based On Top Income Stocks – Portfolio Construction Stream
Jamie Nemtsas, Director, Investstone Wealth Management

Jamie will highlight why companies with high dividends need to be considered for your portfolio, especially for investors that are relying on income. Jamie will highlight a number of specific companies that should be considered and what a portfolio of high yielding companies would look like. He will then go one step further, and apply this methodology to a whole portfolio and show what this might look like and the benefit thereof.

Presentation (PDF 3,255KB)

 Here’s How I Would Invest $1M – Portfolio Construction Stream
Bruce McBryde, Owen Richards, Jenni Eason – AIA Members

In this session three AIA members will outline how they would invest $1 million if they were starting from scratch and that’s all they had. Not only will they list their investments but they will also provide their reasons both for the overall asset allocation and also the specific investments they would make. There will be plenty of time at the end for questions.

Presentation, Eason (PDF 69KB)
Presentation, McBryde (PDF 47KB)
Papers (combined) (PDF 41KB)

 Stream 5:    Property

 Positive Returns From Low Cost Housing – Property Stream
Chris Young, President Property Owners Association of NSW

Chris will set the scene with the market place of low cost housing for rent. Who are the providers of low cost housing stock of rental property? Who owns what in housing stock? Where are the investment opportunities? Chris will discuss these and outline how to generate cashflow from this stock.

Presentation (PDF 267KB)

 Buying Units Off the Plan; Co-ownership & Being A Director of Someone Else’s Company – Property Stream
Robert Balanda, Senior Partner, McDonald Balanda & Associates

Robert’s presentation will be made up of three parts.
Buying Units Off the Plan
This is the area where Australian property investors make the most mistakes. Learn about the pitfalls of buying Off the Plan and how to protect yourself.
The growth of real estate assets over the last decade has put many quality properties outside the reach of a single investor. Direct property investment can still be achieved through co-owning and purchasing property in common with others. What are the risks and important issues to consider?
Being a Director of Someone Else’s Company
How risky is it? Can you protect yourself by obtaining an indemnity from the other Directors and Shareholders or are some liabilities always going to be personal?

Presentation (PDF 2,331KB)

 Listed Versus Unlisted Property – Property Stream
Dugald Higgins, Director, Property Investment Research

Listed and unlisted property should fill different roles in the investor’s portfolio as they display distinctly different characteristics. Understanding a fund and selecting appropriately is vital.

Presentation (PDF 325KB)

 Stream 6:    Share Selection

 The Warren Buffett Approach to Investing – Share Selection Stream
Roger Montgomery, Managing Director & Founder, Clime Asset Management & Chairman, Clime Capital Ltd

Many investors pay homage to Warren Buffett - one of the world's most successful investors - but few truly follow the approach with discipline and consistency.  Even authors of books on the subject have made obvious errors in defining the approach.  Applying Warren Buffett's approach to the Australian market is simple but not easy.  Roger will explain what Warren Buffett might be buying if he were limited to Australian companies and how he would sort the wheat from the chaff.  Roger will explain the valuation model behind the decisions as well as outline a list of key ingredients to look for when identifying truly wonderful businesses.

Valuation Paper (PDF 789KB)

 Blue Chip Investing 1 – Share Selection Stream
Alan Hull, Author & Trader

Blue Chip shares represent quality, financial security and consistent profits. But there are many ways to trade shares and it can be very confusing. In the first part of Alan's presentation he will describe three very different trading systems that he has developed during the two decades he has been trading the Australian Stockmarket.

Presentation (PDF 578KB)
Paper 1 & 2 (PDF 425KB)

 Blue Chip Investing 2 – Share Selection Stream
Alan Hull, Author & Trader

In part 2 of his presentation Alan will look at the individual merits of his three different trading systems, revealing their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally Alan will conclude his presentation by identifying the sort of market conditions that best suit each system and which approach he believes is right for the current market conditions.

Presentation (PDF 578KB)
Paper 1 & 2 (PDF 425KB)

 Share Selection for Long-Term Compound Growth – Share Selection Stream
Robert Vagg, AIA Member

The identification of compound growth rates significantly higher than the overall market may be used as a principal screen for individual stock selection. This long-term buy-and-hold approach correlates share price growth with fundamental parameters such as profit growth and return-on-equity (ROE) and includes simple methods for risk management and value determination. The approach also allows planning for corresponding growth in dividend income.

Presentation (PDF 1,167KB)

 Picking Your ASX Sectors – Share Selection Stream
Ron Gibson, AIA Member & Councillor

You can make more money with an average company stock in the best sectors, than the best company stock in the worst sectors. Ron will show an easy procedure to analyse the sectors to work out which sectors are going to perform. Then, by buying good companies in these sectors, you will be able to outperform the market. This is an essential task to add value using a top down analysis of the market.

Presentation (PDF 613KB)
Paper (PDF 28KB)

 Stream 7:    Technical Matters

 Planning For Aged Care – Technical Stream
Louise Biti, Strategy Steps info...Strategy Steps

The decision to move into aged care can be highly emotional. But don't overlook the financial implications! Available strategies can positively impact the age pension and aged care fees. Being aware of options can help to manage the finances and preserve inheritances, particularly with paying bonds and decisions for the former home. So whether you are looking at your own needs or helping an elderly relative this can be a valuable session.

Presentation (PDF 116KB)

 Tax Issues For Investors – Technical Matters Stream
Dennis Eagles, Director, Grant Thornton Wealth Management

The session will focus on tax issues for investors, strategies to consider, and some hints and tips on how to achieve the best tax outcome, including: latest tax news, hints & tips; which structure should you use to optimise your tax; how to live tax free and what Labor's first Budget means for investors.

Presentation (PDF 112KB)

 Passing On Your Assets to Your Children & Grandchildren – Technical Matters Stream
Matthew Burgess, Partner, McCullough Robertson Lawyers

Traditionally estate planning has focused almost exclusively on wills. Given the enormous intergenerational wealth transfer currently taking place and that for many less than 50% of their entire wealth is owned in a manner that can be directly dealt with under their will, the traditional approach to estate planning has become largely redundant.  This interactive session by one of Australia’s leading estate planning and wealth management lawyers will focus on the most recent developments in this area.

Presentation (PDF 147KB)

 Instalments Now Have Legislative Certainty To Be Used Within SMSFs – Technical Matters Stream
Ian Irvine, Head of Customer & Business Development, ASX

This session will show you how to leverage gearing in your Self Managed Super Fund (or portfolio) using instalment warrants. Ian will outline the various strategies you can use to reduce tax liabilities and show you how to trade instalments for dividends and franking credits.

Presentation (PDF 725KB)

 Is Your SMSF Up to Date? – Technical Matters Stream
Peter Bishell, Financial Adviser, Phase Three Financial Planning

An “up-to-date” SMSF will help members and trustees do a lot more than simply comply with the law.  It will protect your estate planning strategy, protect assets from creditors, open up tax planning strategies and be essential if your SMSF is involved in legal disputes.  Peter will cover what needs to be up to date for all these purposes (aspects of fund records, trust deeds and governing rules, minutes etc).

Presentation (PDF 56KB)

 Problems & Concerns of Investors – Technical Matters Stream
Peter Bishell, Scott Francis, Jamie Nemtsas

This session is one from which the AIA seeks to identify problems and concerns that we have as investors, and to explore what the AIA can do about them. On hand will be our expert panel to help us understand the nature of the problems/concerns, the ways we might address them and where possible what the answers are. This session is for those who have found problems or who have concerns about some aspects related to investing or taking income from their investments.

No paper available

 Miscellaneous Sessions

 Market Manipulation
Owen Richards, AIA Member

The ASX averaged 194,000 trades daily in FY06/07 but there were reportedly only eleven cases of suspected market manipulation referred to ASIC. This presentation looks at the many forms of market manipulation, how they are countered and what we might do to avoid them.  Owen looks particularly at the actions of the so-called Smart Money to query whether its activities are simply clever trading or involve manipulating the market.

Presentation (PDF 862KB)

 Revisiting World Scenarios
Richard Gibbs, Chief Economist & Global Head of Economics, Macquarie Group Limited

Revisiting World Scenarios - Where have we been in the past year and where are we heading?
In the past year, the sub-prime mortgage crisis and its backwash into credit markets, combined with the ongoing rise of China and India have cast a shadow over the pre-eminence of the US economy. Richard will discuss the current challenges facing the global economy and attempt to gauge whether they are symptomatic of the continuation of global structural imbalances. He will also benchmark the current and prospective investment climates in respect to key world scenarios.  

Presentation (PDF 295KB)

 Novice Workshop
Scott Francis, Financial Planner, A Clear Direction Financial Planning

This workshop is intended to equip investors with the basic investment information including the asset classes; investing in shares – how to do it, how to select, risk and return; managed funds; property; fixed interest; portfolio construction and sources of information for investors.

Presentation (PDF 528KB)

 Author Index

Name Company Presentation
Balanda, Robert McDonald Balanda & Associates Buying Off the Plan; Co-ownership; Being A Director Of Someone Else's Company
Bishell, Peter Phase Three Financial Planning Is Your SMSF Up To Date?
Bishell, Peter Phase Three Financial Planning Problems & Concerns of Investors
Biti, Louise Strategy Steps Planning for Aged Care
Blake, David BioShares Magazine Five Strategies for the Biotech Investor
Burgess, Matthew McCullough Robertson Passing On Your Assets to Your Children & Grandchildren
Cameron, Ron Ord Minnett The Resources & Materials Sector
Caton, Chris BT Financial Group Global Economies & Markets
Eagles, Dennis Grant Thornton Tax Issues For Investors
Eason, Jenni Australian Investors Association Here's How I Would Invest $1 million
Francis, Scott A Clear Direction Financial Planning Asset Allocation & Correlations 
Francis, Scott A Clear Direction Financial Planning Novice Workshop
Francis, Scott A Clear Direction Financial Planning Problems & Concerns of Investors
Gibbs, Richard Macquarie Group Limited Climate Change
Gibbs, Richard Macquarie Group Limited Revisiting World Scenarios
Gibson, Ron Australian Investors Association Picking Your ASX Sectors
Higgins, Dugald Property Investment Research Listed Versus Unlisted Property
Hull, Alan  ActVest Blue Chip Investing 1
Hull, Alan  ActVest Blue Chip Investing 2
Irvine, Ian ASX Using Instalments in SMSFs (now with legislative certainty)
Lawlor, John Ord Minnett The Mining Services Sector
Leckie, Brigette Perpetual Investments Emerging Markets
Mayne, Stephen The Mayne Report Why Australia Needs a Stronger Culture of Shareholder Activism
McBryde, Bruce  Australian Investors Association Here's How I Would Invest $1 million
Meani, Regina  Author & Journalist How to Profit from Technical Analysis Using Trend Lines, Patterns & Indicators
Montgomery , Roger Clime Asset Management The Warren Buffett Approach to Investing
Morgan, Jonathan ASX Using ETFs in Your Investment Portfolio
Nemtsas, Jamie InvestStone Wealth Management Portfolio Design Based on Top Income Stocks
Nemtsas, Jamie InvestStone Wealth Management Problems & Concerns of Investors
Nicholson, Colin Author & Journalist How to Make Better Investing Decisions
Ormond, Ashley Investing 101 Set Your Investing Path to the Future
Richards, Owen Australian Investors Association Here's How I Would Invest $1 million
Richards, Owen Australian Investors Association Market Manipulation
Scattini, Justin  Ord Minnett The Banking Sector
Scattini, Justin  Ord Minnett The Retail Sector
Vagg, Robert   A Scientific Analysis of the Australian Stock Market
Vagg, Robert   Share Selection for Long-Term Compound Growth
Woods, Ian AMP Capital Investors Climate Change - What's The Big Deal?
Woods, Ian AMP Capital Investors Climate Change - Potential Winners and Losers
Young, Chris Property Owners Association NSW Positive Returns From Low Cost Housing
Ziegler, Barry Citi Smith Barney A High Yield Alternative to Traditional Fixed Interest