National Conference 2009

Markets 2009 – Strategies & Opportunities - AIA National Investors Conference Papers - 26 to 29 July 2009

On this page:

Session Index

Author Index

This page contains an index for the papers presented to the AIA National Conference held on the Gold Coast in July, 2009.

Where authors provided the AIA with copies of their papers, a link to the presentation is provided so you may download them if you wish. Links to the available presentation material are provided after the entry.

Note: All presentations have been converted to *.pdf format.

To view the presentations, please login, or if you are not a member then please consider joining the AIA.  Find out more on the Member Benefits page.

 

Session Index

  • Plenary Sessions
  • Stream 1: ASX sectors
    This stream will examine most of the important sectors of the ASX. Discussion on each will include their comparative performance to other sectors; pros and cons; the outlook for the sector and the major stocks within the sector. By following this stream you will gain a comprehensive coverage of the Australian share-market.
  • Stream 2: Buying & selling shares
    There is more than one way to skin a cat and the same applies when selecting shares. In this stream you will have the opportunity to hear from professionals and an individual investor – each outlining their processes for selecting shares. Do they use fundamental analysis, technical analysis, software applications or a combination?
  • Stream 3: Investment options
    You will be able to examine a range of investments in sufficient detail to enable you to determine whether they suit your needs and how to source further information. Topics include managed funds, exchange traded funds, fixed interest and more.
  • Stream 4: Options trading
    These sessions will provide the opportunity to learn in detail two option strategies appropriate for all investors. It will be hands-on and you will get the chance to select options and find out what would have happened if this had to be done in a live situation.
  • Stream 5: Portfolio strategies
    This stream addresses a number of matters about managing your portfolio particularly risk and the value vs. growth question. A more comprehensive examination of portfolio issues will occur in the portfolio masterclass.
  • Stream 6: SMSFs
    Thinking about establishing a SMSF, or have one but wish to check you are compliant? If so, these sessions are for you. The first will discuss the process of establishing a SMSF; issues which need to be considered, ongoing administration obligations and more. The second will serve as a checklist and will discuss the sole purpose test; contribution rules; payment of benefits; annual obligations; borrowing rules etc.
  • Stream 7: Technical analysis
    Aimed at those who have an understanding of technical analysis but wish to refine their skills, these two hands on sessions will help you to gain a clear understanding of what the key technical analysis features are that a successful trader can use to trade successfully with market movement in a single direction and also what to do when markets trend sideways which they do about 60% of the time.
  • Stream 8: Technical matters
    There are two sure things in life, death and taxes, and this stream covers these important aspects - essential ingredients for all successful investors.

Plenary Sessions

The crash of 2008 and the mother of all stimulations
Jonathan Pain is the Chief Investment Strategist of HFA Asset Management and has over 20 years of international investment experience. After the crash of 2008 we are now witness to the mother of all stimulations as the world's central banks and governments engage in unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulation. The era of credit expansion is now behind us and we need to understand the implications of a period of credit contraction. Will the world be a better place once we emerge from the current crisis and what kind of world will we live in?

Presentation (PDF 340KB)

The economic outlook
What is ahead for Australian investors in 2009? Where is the cycle taking investors? Is the end of the bear run in sight? Michael Blythe, Chief Economist of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, will look at the likely economic environment faced by investors in 2009 - focusing on the global business cycle and structural issues that will challenge policymakers and investors.

Presentation (PDF 445KB)

Current portfolio dilemmas & solutions
Brian Thomas has been in the industry since 1977 working in the pension and mutual fund industry. The tenets for building a great long term investment portfolio have been turned upside-down by the financial rout since November 2007 – or have they? Brian will look at the latest thinking in portfolio design with several practical tips and ideas to help you build the ultimate investment portfolio for today’s environment.

Presentation (PDF 730KB)

BRICs: Leading the investment opportunity for 2009
Dr Tony Rumble is a tax expert, asset consultant and has consulted to a number of industry peak bodies representing the financial services community. Economic growth in the BRIC sector has led the world for the last few years and, despite setbacks following the 2008 global financial crisis, GDP growth in the BRIC economies is expected to continue to lead global growth in 2009 and beyond. Tony will examine the key value drivers for the economies of each of the BRIC nations, as well as looking closely at the risks and threats to GDP growth. He will also show how it’s impossible to buy clean BRIC sector exposure by using traditional international managed funds, and why BRIC indices can deliver better targeted BRIC investment returns.

Presentation (PDF 2.03MB)
Paper (PDF 141KB)

Managed funds vs direct shares vs index funds forum
Facilitator: Ashley Ormond, CEO, Investing 101 and Author
Panelist: Robin Bowerman, Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd
Panelist: Simon Kent-Jones, Head of Investment Research, Ord Minnett
Panelist: Brian Thomas, Head of Channel Management & Direct Sales, Perennial Australia.
This forum will consider the benefits and disadvantages of managed funds, index funds compared with direct investment in shares. Ashley Ormond will facilitate this debate/forum. As well as inputs from the speakers and questions from the facilitator, there will be an opportunity for conference participants to ask questions and make comments.

No paper available

What we as investors have learned from 2008-2009
Ashley Ormond is the owner and Principal of Investing 101 an author of three books on finance (Give Your Kids $1M Each, $1M For Life and 101 Ways to get out of Debt). The crash of 2008-09 destroyed many myths that had built up over 15 years of boom - that "AAA-rated" meant minimal risk, that house prices never fall, that commercial property and banks were "safe and reliable", that Asia would "de-couple" from the US and Europe, that inflation was under control, that globalisation of finance would reduce risk. For investors - what are the lessons? Is it time to get back to basics or is it a new world requiring new rules?

Presentation (PDF 1.59MB)

Issues for investors
During the conference the AIA Media Committee will survey the opinions of conference participants on a number of matters related to the Senate Inquiry into Financial Products and Services as well as those that have been raised during sessions. The results will be presented to Bernie Ripoll, Federal Member for Oxley and Chair for the Parliamentary Joint Committee Inquiry into Financial Products and Services. Bernie Ripoll will also provide an update on the progress of the Inquiry and any significant issues arising from this.

Presentation (PDF 66KB)

Stream 1: ASX sectors

The ASX 50
Jamie Nemtsas is a Partner of a fee-for-service, independent financial planning firm, Lachlan Partners. Jamie will analyse the companies that make up the top 50 stocks listed on the ASX, eliminating each stock one by one. He will do this by eliminating the ASX 50 to a portfolio of 40 stocks, 25, 10 and finally a 3 stock portfolio that he and the firm would buy for the long term investor.
Jamie will examine debt cover, business practices, revenue strength and also consider what companies will do best with the least amount of risk.

Presentation (PDF 1.32MB)

 he case for small caps in an Australian equity strategy
Neil Schafer, CEO of Souls Funds Management, will set out the differences between large caps and small caps by looking at the relative past returns of indexes and managers. Neil will explain why small caps have in the past outperformed large caps and why they will in the future, providing some stock specific examples.

Presentation (PDF 462KB)

The healthcare sector
The Australian healthcare sector has generally been seen as a defensive investment play, characterised by non-discretionary revenue base. This has generally allowed healthcare stock prices to hold value, and outperform the overall Australian market. The ‘collapse’ of the A$ against major global currencies has also positively helped many of the healthcare names with international sales (ie. CSL, Cochlear and Sonic Healthcare). Andrew Goodsall, the senior healthcare analyst with UBS Australia will provide a comprehensive coverage of this sector.

Presentation (PDF 476KB)

The financial sector
Banks have been hard hit. How have Australian banks fared overall and what are their prospects looking ahead for a few years? Will they return as staples in a balanced portfolio? And which of them offers the best value? Rated regularly as one of the top presenters at past AIA National Investor Conferences, Felicity Scanlon, an analyst with Macquarie, will examine the banks and the sector overall as important elements of our portfolios.

Presentation (PDF 1.03MB)

REITs – an opportunity of a lifetime or more trouble ahead
Warren Boothman has worked in the property funds management industry for nearly 20 years, with small and large property funds management groups. The dramatic fall in the value of REITs has taken the sector to unprecedented lows. Unlike the last recession, the fall in the value of REITs has had little to do with property markets. Does this dramatic fall represent the end of this once favoured sector, or a unique window of opportunity we might never see again. Warren will explore the factors driving the dramatic fall and look at some of the key issues investors need to consider.

Presentation (PDF 348KB)

The outlook for commodities
Chris Brown is a professional geologist and had 18 years experience with Western Mining Corporation Limited Group companies. For the past 20 years he has been involved with the investment industry. Commodity markets enjoyed a boom period from 2002, which culminated with prices peaking from mid 2006 through to mid 2008. The world has now moved into a co-ordinated slow down, with the catalyst the US-centric sub-prime crisis. Are commodity prices high or low? What has happened to supply and demand? What's the expectation for prices?

Presentation (PDF 992KB)
Paper (PDF 14KB)

The resources sector
Dr Allan Trench has approximately 20 years experience within the Australian resources sector and is the lead author of six books, including Top Resources Stocks 2009, published by Wrightbooks-Wiley. The resources sector is notoriously volatile - with some commodities and companies appreciating in value whilst others fall. Allan will examine what drives changes in value in the sector and look ahead to anticipated changes over the next 1-3 years. Which commodities will run hottest? Which companies are active in those sectors? Conversely, which sectors will be least attractive? The thesis of this presentation is that all metals and minerals are not equal in their attractiveness at any given point in time. It pays to research the commodity outlooks - a key driver of company share price performance.

Presentation (PDF 570KB)

Stream 2: Buying & selling shares

Market fundamentals – revisiting the basics  
Aimed at those who are attending the conference for the first time or would just like a refresher this session will provide you with the basics of stock selection, market terminology, basics of technical and fundamental analysis while weaving in the breadth of ASX product range and where to access this information. Graham O’Brien, ASX, and has 12 years experience as a broker and educator.

Presentation (PDF 803KB)

Opportunities in the Australian sharemarket
Rudi Filapek-Vandyck is Editor of FNArena, a regular contributor to the Eureka Report and a regular guest on SKY Business television. Post the March-May rally, some experts are calling the share market fully priced. Others say the market is still cheap. Is something else in play than simply a difference in opinion? Other factors need to be taken into account when assessing the share market’s prospects. After all, it’s still a bear market and taking a longer term view is far easier said than done.

Presentation (PDF 676KB)

How Warren Buffett buys shares
Roger Montgomery is the founder of Sydney-based funds management company Clime which he sold in 2005/2006 and remained managing director of until 2009. In June 2009 he formally resigned from his official duties and is devoting a year to focus on his private investments, his media commitments, to write an investing book and travel with his family. As well as showing you what to buy, Roger will also reveal the common mistakes made by new value investors, the errors that triggered the global financial crisis that will be repeated and the signs that it’s time to sell.

Presentation (PDF 246KB)

Different methods for stock selection
There are many methods which can be used to select stocks for an investment portfolio. While some of these methods are complex and may require sophisticated software, others are quite simple and may often provide excellent results. A recent survey of methods for selection of stocks used by AIA members provides a useful basis for comparing the different methods that are available. This will be presented by Bill Dodd, AIA Councillor, retired academic and active investor.

Presentation (PDF 745KB)

Day-traded equities: a neglected asset class
Alan Hill is a stockbroker with 30 years’ experience as a sell-side investment analyst, research manager, advisor and trader. He is Executive Chairman of State One Stockbroking Ltd, the parent company of online broker Amscot Discount Stockbroking. In this presentation Alan will address some of the misconceptions in the market regarding day-trading. He will discuss some of the opportunities available to the short term trader, and give advice on how to select the best stocks for
day trading with strategies on how to maximize profit on each trade. His focus will be on trading the most marketable and volatile equities on ASX.

Presentation (PDF 435KB)

Share selection 1 – what to look for and why
Colin Nicholson has taught both fundamental and technical analysis for the Financial Services Institute of Australasia (FINSIA). Before starting out on our investment journey, we must know where we are intending to go. Colin will explain his models for finding stocks with high potential, but with an all-important margin of safety. Once he has sketched the map, Colin will show where the journey leads. Even more important, he will show the guideposts to look for when beginning the journey.

Presentation (PDF 512KB)

Share selection 2 – how to find and assess good stocks
Once we know what to look for, good stocks do not just fall into our laps. Colin Nicholson will demonstrate how to search for good candidates using charts and fundamentals. Having found a list of prospects, he will show how to sort the gems from the rubbish. Colin will conclude with an assessment of the current stock market landscape for stock selection.

Presentation (PDF 508KB)

Stream 3: Investment options

New market product – an ASX update
Jonathan Morgan joined ASX in 2000 working predominantly within the operations side of the business. Jonathan will introduce new products to ASX such as ETCs (exchange traded commodities), property contracts and the new AQUA market that theoretically allow investors to access previously unlisted securities through their broker and register their holdings on CHESS

Presentation (PDF 1.43MB)

Sustainable investing
James Thier helped establish Australian Ethical in 1986 and has seen it grow its funds under management to around $550M. Concerns about the environment, the impact of climate change and corporate malfeasance have put a spotlight on sustainable investing. James will explore how sustainable investment can make positive change on issues such as climate change, water shortages and corporate responsibility while producing competitive financial returns. James will also identify potential growth sectors, and outline some of the companies leading the way on a range of environmental, social and financial criteria.

Presentation (PDF 1.57MB)
Paper (PDF 25KB)

Options for getting better returns on your cash
With twenty two years experience in financial markets, Susan Buckley is responsible for the leadership and management of QIC Global Fixed Interest. With interest rates in Australia expected to be at very low levels for an extended period, Susan will discuss how to enhance your investment return from fixed interest strategies and instruments. Susan will compare traditional cash and fixed interest products to absolute return, enhanced cash, credit and hedge fund fixed interest products, explaining where the opportunities lie.

Presentation (PDF 154KB)

Australian equity managed investments
This session will focus on the wide range of managed investments based on Australian equities, both managed funds and ASX-listed managed investments. It will examine a number of factors that the investor needs to take into account when making such investments, as well as the resources available to assist in this. Coordinator of the Brisbane Managed Investments Group, Scott McKenzie, will conduct this session.

Presentation (PDF 141KB)

The rise and rise of exchange traded funds
In Australia, self directed investors have shown themselves to be early adopters of ETFs, particularly for managing their SMSF assets. In this session, Tim Bradbury, co-Head of iShares Australia, will define what is an ETF?; summarise features and benefits for investors; explain the reasons for their massive growth globally; highlight what is available on the ASX and discuss several strategies for using ETFs in your portfolio.

Presentation (PDF 864KB)

Global investing
Platinum Asset Management is a Sydney-based manager specialising in international equities. The investment team uses a thematic stock-picking approach that concentrates on identifying out-of-favour stocks with the objective of achieving superior returns for investors. Platinum pay no heed to recognised indices and aim to protect against loss and will hedge stocks, indices and currencies in their endeavours to do so. Alex Barbi will provide an overview of issues and prospects in global financial markets.

Presentation (PDF 376KB)

Stream 4: Options trading

Option strategies for the times – share income writing strategies
Nick Katiforis is author of Professional Options Strategies for Private Traders and a former professional trader at the Sydney Futures Exchange. Looking for a better return on your shares? Make time your friend by taking advantage of the favourable effect of time decay of written call options through a covered call writing strategy. Nick will also reveal the share replica strategy a lower cost alternative income writing strategy ideal for the current times.

Option strategies for the times – capital protected share strategies
Looking to invest in the share market and still be able to sleep at night? Nick Katiforis will show you how you can combine Australian blue chip shares with ASX options to provide 100% capital protection on your investment with unlimited upside profit potential. The capital protected share strategy is a great entry level strategy into the Australian share market, and features all the benefits of share ownership including capital appreciation, dividends and franking credits, combined with 100% capital protection.

Paper Combined (PDF 931KB)

Stream 5: Portfolio strategies

Value vs growth
Julia Lee is the Head Media Presenter at Bell Direct, providing financial commentary to SKY news, SKY Business Channel, CNBC, ABC and on the internet. At different times a value strategy, ie investing in companies that are comparatively inexpensive but have potential, gives a better performance than a growth strategy, ie investing in companies with excellent growth prospects, without giving too much consideration to price. Julia will examine these ideas and consider which economic environments favour each.

Presentation (PDF 1.04MB)

Investment risk – how to handle it
Bernard O’Connor has been in the broking industry for over 25 years, including 12 years in futures broking for corporate and retail clients including options, foreign exchange, fixed interest and commodities. He is a part owner of a financial planning firm that specialises in direct equities. Bernard will identify the psychological side of risk and how to deal with it. He will also outline how to create an investment plan which incorporates risk management, position sizing, time and capital constraints and other related issues.

Presentation (PDF 564KB)

Stream 6: SMSFs

Establishing & managing your SMSF
David Busoli is the Queensland State Manager for Cavendish Super and has specialised in self managed superannuation for the past 19 years. This session is not only a must for those considering establishing a SMSF, but will also serve as a checklist for those who have one. David will outline the important issues to consider; what exactly is involved in managing a SMSF, the process, the key administrative obligations and the trustee’s obligations.

Presentation (PDF 193KB)
Paper (PDF 37KB)

Reviewing your SMSF
Following on from the previous session, David Busoli will discuss each of the important components of a SMSF updating the rules to help you ensure your SMSF is both compliant and up-to-date. Issues discussed will include: the sole purpose test; contribution rules; payment of benefits; annual obligations; borrowing rules; failure to comply and winding up a SMSF.

Presentation (PDF 193KB)
Paper (PDF 58KB)

Stream 7: Technical analysis

Using technical analysis to trade directionally
Neil Godwin retired at age 44, is a private trader and personal trading mentor. The first hour of this workshop includes information about the major features of a trading plan incorporating the use of technical analysis, what charts represent, which chart features a trader should look for and how those features can be used affectively.

Presentation (PDF 3.51MB)

Using technical analysis to trade non-directionally
Being able to trade sideways markets opens up many more trading opportunities for traders who would otherwise need to stay out of the market or suffer saw tooth entries and exits. Technical analysis will be used to demonstrate the best timing for entries and exits. In this second hour of the workshop Neil Godwin will emphasise the use of technical analysis to time trades, not the actual instruments used for trading.

Presentation (PDF 3.45MB)

Stream 8: Technical matters

Tax issues
A qualified practising accountant Robert Carius is a career finance professional and a Partner of Carthills, having joined the business at inception some 20 years ago. As a taxation specialist Robert is well qualified to outline strategies, hints and tips on how investors can achieve the best tax outcome, including: latest tax news, hints & tips; which structure should you use to optimise your tax; how to live tax free and other important strategies for investors.

Presentation (PDF 240KB)
Paper (PDF 70KB)

Estate planning basics
With over 22 years experience with Argyle Lawyers Peter Bobbin has been called “The Father of Modern Estate Tax Planning.” In this fast paced session Peter will focus on the important basics of successful succession planning. You will learn: how to start estate planning; what are the key things you need to know before you start; the most common simple mistakes and how to avoid these; you can rule from the grave; if you know how; when to avoid it; and answers to the questions that you didn't know you needed to know!

Presentation (PDF 164KB)
Paper (PDF 149KB)

Estate planning complexities
Following on from the previous session Peter Bobbin will outline succession planning strategies at an advanced level, especially looking at: your family home and how to protect this for the next generation; how powers of attorney can wreck careful planning if not carefully planned; your super dependants are not who you think these are; why binding super death nominations can be so wrong; trusts, a cornerstone but also a potential problem that can be overcome and the paramount agreement that can tie up the loose ends when needed.

Presentation (PDF 164KB)


Author Index

Presenter

Session Title

Stream

Barbi, Alex Global investing Investment options
Blythe, Michael Economic outlook Plenary
Bobbin, Peter Estate planning basics Technical matters
Bobbin, Peter Estate planning complexities Technical matters
Boothman, Warren REITs - an oportunity of a lifetime or more trouble ahead? ASX sectors
Bradbury, Tim The rise & rise of exchange traded funds Investment options
Brown, Chris The outlook for commodities ASX sectors
Buckley, Susan Options for getting better returns on your cash Investment options
Busoli, David Establishing & managing your SMSF SMSFs
Busoli, David Reviewing your SMSF SMSFs
Carius, Robert Tax issues Technical matters
Dodd, Bill Different methods for stock selection Buying & selling shares
Filapek-Vandyck, Rudi Opportunities in the Australian sharemarket? Buying & selling shares
Godwin, Neil Using technical analysis to trade directionally Technical analysis
Godwin, Neil Using technical analysis to trade non-directionally Technical analysis
Goodsall, Andrew The healthcare sector ASX sectors
Hill, Alan Day traded equities: a neglected asset class Buying & selling shares
Katiforis, Nick Option strategies - share income writing strategies Options trading
Katiforis, Nick Option strategies - capital protected share strategies Options trading
Lee, Julia Value vs growth Portfolio strategies
McKenzie, Scott Australian equity managed investments Investment options
Montgomery, Roger How Warren Buffett buys shares Buying & selling shares
Morgan, Jonathan New market product - An ASX update Investment options
Nemtsas, Jamie The ASX 50 ASX sectors
Nicholson, Colin Share selection 1 - what to look for and why Buying & selling shares
Nicholson, Colin Share selection 2 - how to find and assess good stocks Buying & selling shares
O'Brien, Graeme Market fundamentals - revisiting the basics Buying & selling shares
O'Connor, Bernard Investment risk - how to handle it Portfolio strategies
Ormond, Ashley What we as investors have learned from 2008-2009 Plenary
Pain, Jonathan The crash of 2008 & the mother of all stimulations Plenary
Rumble, Tony BRICs: leading the opportunity Plenary
Scanlon, Felicity The financial sector ASX sectors
Schafer, Neil The case for small caps in an Australian equity strategy ASX sectors
Thier, James Sustainable investing Investment options
Thomas, Brian Current portfolio dilemmas and solutions Plenary
Trench, Allan The resources sector ASX sectors