National Conference 2010

Investment Strategies for Changing Markets - 2010 AIA National Investors Conference Papers - 25 to 28 July 2010

On this page:

Session Index

Author Index

This page contains an index for the papers presented to the AIA National Conference held on the Gold Coast in July, 2010.

Where authors provided the AIA with copies of their papers, a link to the presentation is provided so you may download them if you wish. Links to the available presentation material are provided after the entry.

Note: All presentations have been converted to *.pdf format.

To view the presentations, please login, or if you are not a member then please consider joining the AIA.  Find out more on the Member Benefits page.

Session Index

  • Plenary Sessions
  • Sponsor Sessions
  • Stream 1: ASX Sectors
    This stream will examine most of the important sectors of the ASX. Discussion on each will include their comparative performance to other sectors; pros and cons; the outlook for the sector and the major stocks within the sector. By following this stream you will gain a comprehensive coverage of the Australian share market.
  • Stream 2: Investing in the share market
    The Australian share market has offered a return of about 12% pa to investors over the long term and this level of return may be expected to continue. There are many ways to invest successfully in the share market. At the 2010 conference you will have the opportunity to hear about a variety of fundamental and technical methods for investing in the market with each presenter offering different approaches to share selection and investment management.
  • Stream 3: Investment opportunities
    You will be able to examine a range of investments in sufficient detail to enable you to determine whether they suit your needs and how to source further information. Topics include income securities, exchange traded funds, how to invest in gold and more.
  • Stream 4: Property
    For most novice investors direct property is the first most comfortable asset class to invest in. As investors become more sophisticated this asset class can easily be overlooked. This stream will offer presentations on residential and commercial investment opportunities as well as the out of flavour REITs sector.
  • Stream 5: SMSFs
    Want to know more about superannuation and SMSFs in particular? This stream will address four different issues; record-keeping for SMSFs (a vital and often overlooked area), contribution strategies, pension strategies and finally estate planning for SMSFs. The contribution and pension strategies sessions would be of interest to any superannuation fund member as many of the strategies apply to non-SMSF funds.
  • Conference Dinner

Plenary Sessions

The new reality

Jonathan Pain, Editor of The Pain Report

The emerging world is clearly driven by the two most populous giants, India and China and the submerging world is represented by nations such as Iceland, Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom and perhaps even the United States. Where does Australia sit in this new divide between the submerging and the emerging? What kind of world will we live in over the decades ahead? What are the key factors and forces which will shape and define our world in the years ahead? Can the ‘lucky country’ shape its own destiny?

Presentation (PDF 228 KB)

The truth about the stockmarket

Marcus Padley, author of the Marcus Today Daily Stockmarket newsletter

Marcus is best known for telling it as is and in this opening talk will challenge some of our common assumptions about the equity market, blow a few stockmarket myths, teach us a few lessons learnt from experience and entertain us with his sure fire guaranteed methods of getting rich.

Presentation (PDF 465 KB)

The economic outlook

Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec

The Australian economy has hardly missed a beat for almost 20 years despite a raft of challenges posed from overseas. But how will the new financial year shape up? Craig will assess the outlook for the economy over the coming year including forecasts for interest rates, the dollar and sharemarket. In addition Craig will also focus on some of the longer-term risks and opportunities that the economy faces and assess what they mean for investors.

Presentation (PDF 536 KB)

The need for an investment plan

Colin Nicholson, BEc SF Fin, Author

Colin believes from his own experience that without a sound investment plan investors will be more likely to fail. He also advocates the importance of having the plan in writing. Colin will discuss the risks that should be managed by the plan. He will then explain why it can be difficult to implement an investment plan in practice. Colin will provide strategies to help you prepare and implement your plan. He will also explain how and why you need to evaluate your actual performance against the plan.

Presentation (PDF 1.04 MB)

What works on Wall Street

Roger Montgomery

High dividend yields, low P/E’s and high PEG ratios are popular but why do the returns merely rise and fall with the market? Should you use charts or fundamentals? Time in the market or timing?  What really works on the Australian stock market? Roger will explore the methods many use when attempting to beat the market and then reveal those that do.

Presentation (PDF 1.24 MB)

The end of retirement?

Steven Taylor, Challenger

2010 is the year where Baby Boomers reach the traditional retirement age of 65. The dual impacts of a declining tax revenue base combined with increasing life expectancies will place a massive strain on Government finances to fund aged care benefits. Challenger has been working with Government bodies and industry experts to better understand the implications that we will all face, due to the changing demographic nature of our population. 

Steven will discuss issues such as public policy strategies that may be required to fund government benefits; just how many people will be retired in the next 10,20 and 30 years; is Australia unique in facing this challenge, or is this a global phenomenon and how can investors insure against ‘ longevity risk ‘ to ensure their incomes last.

Presentation (PDF 907 KB)

Labor and the shareholder rights agenda

Stephen Mayne, The Mayne Report

With Australia being one of the world’s great shareholder nations and a federal election just around the corner, Australia’s best known shareholder activist Stephen Mayne will assess the Rudd Government’s record on corporate governance, disclosure, class actions, superannuation and executive pay. Do shareholders have the tools necessary to hold boards to account and are they using them effectively? And just how good are the directors of Australia’s major public companies?

No paper available

Sponsor Sessions

Investing in turbulent times

John Abernethy, Executive Director & Chief Investment Officer, Clime Asset Management

John will provide a review of current international economic climate and share the secrets of Clime’s investment success. Under John’s stewardship, the clients of Clime Asset Management have seen returns well above the index. Even in the year to June 2009, when the market fell by -23%, the clients of Clime gained an average of +11%. John will discuss the impact of the macro picture on the Australian market, as well as reveal specific investment tips – companies that you may want to consider for your portfolio.

Presentation (PDF 496 KB)

Hot stocks for the new financial year

Keith Foreman, Senior Business Manager & Simon Blair, Senior Business Manager, Lincoln Indicators

Re-ignite your share portfolio for the new financial year with quality, not quantity. Simon Blair and Keith Foreman, Lincoln’s Senior Business Managers, will share with you their top list of ‘hot stocks’ on the ASX expected to deliver quality and perform well into the new financial year. Using Lincoln’s proven methodology, Simon and Keith will demonstrate just how easy it is to filter and analyse small and large cap stocks using a series of key indicators. Investors looking to spring clean and reposition their share portfolio this reporting season should not miss this presentation.

No paper available

Diversification with art - understand the strategies for building an art investment portfolio

Cameron Hall, Managing Director, Smith & Hall

If you are serious about portfolio diversification, this session is not to be missed. Learn how to approach art as an investment, explore strategies for building an art portfolio, discover the tips to appropriate artwork selection and find out how to generate a return of up to 8%p.a. plus capital appreciation.

Presentation (PDF 428 KB)


Stream 1: ASX sectors

Information technology sector

John Grant, Managing Director, Data#3 and Nick Harris, Senior Analyst, RBS Morgans

Since 1995, Australia’s IT revenues have grown an average of 13.0% per year. Whilst 2% of Australia’s total population earn a living from IT, these same workers generate 3.7% of the country’s overall GDP. Moreover, the IDC forecasts that the sector will continue to grow - with software and IT services leading the way. Some companies write software, some resell software and others consult. There is opportunity in this growing sector and John will show investors what to look for when selecting a company to invest in so they can ensure the company fits in with their investment objectives.

Presentation (PDF 1.77 MB)

Presentation (PDF 229 KB)

The retail sector

Matthew Cahill, JBWere

Encompassing consumer staples such as Woolworths and Coles; consumer discretionary such as Myers and David Jones; manufacturers and distributors of food as well as drug retailing companies, this sector is diverse incorporating both cyclical and defensive stocks. Matthew will provide an overview of the sector and draw on GSJBWere’s research to outline how the various components, and the major players within, will perform looking ahead.

Presentation (PDF 218 KB)

Agri-resources – the new gold

Mark Simpson, Head of Research, Patersons Securities Limited

Investors are well aware of Australia's leading position in metals and mining resources, however, the comparative strengths in agriculture are often overlooked. Mark will highlight the compelling parallels between both hard and soft commodities with regards the rising global demand, proximity to markets and the increasing flow of foreign and private equity capital into this space. He will highlight those sectors and stocks that he believes best leverage these themes, covering opportunities in both agriculture and aquaculture.

Presentation (PDF 1.92 MB)

Financial sector

Ty Laird, Private Client Adviser, Macquarie

The financial sector has performed well during the global financial crisis with Westpac now the 13th largest bank in the world and the Commonwealth now the 15th largest bank in the world. However, the sector is far more extensive and includes companies involved in financial investment, insurance and more. Ty will provide a broad overview of this sector from both a global and Australian perspective. He will also provide a detailed summary of the reporting season for the sector and the outlook for the year ahead.

Presentation (PDF 607 KB)

Small companies, big opportunities

Elio D’Amato, Chief Executive Officer, Lincoln

Quality small businesses can become quality big businesses. By focusing on the fundamentals, Elio will demonstrate how easy it is to recognise value in the small caps sector using Lincoln’s unique health score methodology and other quantitative measures to provide his top 10 list. Elio will also highlight the size of the opportunity for investors in the small cap sector, as well as look at the warning signals to steer clear of when assessing businesses in this lucrative, but potentially volatile sector.

Presentation (PDF 1.45 MB)

REITs – is now the time to consider investing?

George Karatsanis & Andrew English, RBS Morgans

The GFC took the REIT sector to unprecedented lows but we have since seen a degree of recovery? Unlike the last recession, the fall in the value of REITs has had more to do with debt and less to do with property. Is it now time to look at investing in this sector? George and Andrew will explore the factors driving the dramatic fall and look at some of the key issues investors need to consider.

Presentation (PDF 1.65 MB)

Stream 2: Investing in the share market

Financial markets as complex adaptive systems 1 & 2

Alan Hull

Alan has done extensive research into analysing price charts as a type of phase space and identifying emergent properties that can be exploited for profit. Terminology such as swarm intelligence and self organisation isn’t commonly associated with financial markets but that’s very likely to change as we move forward into the 21st century.

Furthermore understanding financial markets as complex adaptive systems doesn’t invalidate any of the current concepts used by traders and investors. Rather to the contrary, it only serves to enhance them by identifying which are the most appropriate strategies and trading techniques for any given situation. Alan will firstly explain the theory behind complex adaptive systems before applying this understanding to the Australian stockmarket, as well as other key global equity markets.

Presentation (PDF 2.04 MB)

Paper (PDF 309 KB)

Profitable investing by following the trend

Justine Pollard, Author, Private Trader & Trading Mentor

Many of the world’s most successful investors use trend following methods. Investors who use trend following methods never enter at the bottom of the trend and never sell at the top, they aim to take about 70% of the trend. In the uncertain world of investing, trend following is one of the best tools to manage risk and market uncertainty while establishing a portfolio which has a reasonable expectation of making money. Justine will consider the advantages of trend following methods with specific examples showing how investors can profit from applying this simple approach.

Presentation (PDF 1.16 MB)

Selecting stocks for the long-term portfolio

Andrew Doherty, Head of Equity Research, Morningstar

Many investors prefer to have a portfolio which requires low maintenance and which will perform well over the long term. Andrew will highlight methods for selecting stocks for long term performance. These are blue chip stocks which would be considered the best businesses and which would be expected to perform well over the long term. Andrew will also discuss proven methods for selecting stocks for long term portfolios based on fundamental analysis.

Presentation (PDF 349 KB)

Using technical analysis to find high probability trades

Louise Bedford, Trading Secrets

Discover the importance of weight of evidence as Louise reveals the top five reasons holding you back from sharemarket profits. If you’re serious about investing successfully, and you’re ready to take the next step with trading, this session will help as Louise will outline the opportunities that technical analysis offers the investor not only in timing the buying and selling stages but assisting in risk management. Examples will be used to demonstrate the techniques outlined.

Presentation (PDF 1.05 MB)

Dive brain-first into sharemarket profits

Louise Bedford, Trading Secrets

Ever wondered why you bought that particular share, or why you didn't follow your own trading plan? The answer may be stranger than you think. Are we completely irrational creatures, destined to the whims of our hormones, our environment and our neural pathways? Or can we train our brains to allow us to become ultra-versatile traders, capable of achieving incredible results in the current market conditions? In this presentation, you will learn about the 'neuroplasticity' required to become an exceptional trader and why, after you begin to trade, you could quite literally never be the same person again!

Presentation (PDF 1.40 MB)

Elliott wave theory

Daniel Goulding, Client Adviser, RBS Morgans

The application of the Elliot Wave principles provides both investors and traders with an opportunity to understand the position of the market and make investment decisions related to risk, entry and exit and generally improve profitability. Daniel will compare and contrasts the different schools of thought with respect to Elliott Wave. The outlook for the Australian equities market will also be discussed, with reference to Elliott Wave and other technical indicators.

Presentation (PDF 876 KB)

Paper (PDF 221 KB)

The formula that works; company analysis made easy

Roger Montgomery

Don't be mislead by conventional wisdom again. Find out how Roger identifies A1 businesses trading at D-grade prices, to produce returns that have significantly outperformed. Discover his "true cash flow" calculation and ten businesses that have the highest probability of success.

No paper available

Portfolio protection using options and index futures

Jody Elliss, CEO, Investor Centre

Investors who hold stocks for the long term are concerned in times of market downturn and are looking for ways to protect their portfolio without having to exit their portfolio with consequences of capital gains. Both options and index futures offer opportunities to investors to protect their investments. Jody will consider how these two approaches may be used in portfolio protection under different circumstances.

Paper (PDF 147 KB)

Managing risk for profitable investment in the share market

Julia Lee, Equities Analyst, Bell Direct

Investing in the market is uncertain and in fact the only thing that investors can control is how much they are can lose. Investors usually approach the market by asking how much can I make while their approach should be defensive and ask how much could I lose? Successful investing is only possible if the risks of investing are managed. This presentation will consider the risks that the investor can avoid and those risks which must be managed for successful investing. Particular emphasis will be placed on the challenges of managing market risk and specific risk.

Presentation (PDF 345 KB)

Stream 3: Investment opportunities

How to invest in gold

Jamie Nemtsas, Director, Lachlan Partners

Should gold be part of your portfolio? Want to know more about how to invest in gold? Then this session is for you. It will cover the pros and cons of investing in gold, its correlation with other investment types and the various means of investing in gold, from buying a little nugget to shares in a gold mine or two.

Presentation (PDF 245 KB)

Electricity markets & emissions trading

Tim Nelson, Head of Carbon and Sustainability, AGL Energy

Tim will demystify the carbon and emissions trading scheme and outline how energy markets operate both within Australia and globally. He will detail how the National Electricity Market operates and how the emissions trading and climate change policy work. By understanding the interaction between emissions trading and energy markets investors can make money from this new sector and Tim will show you how.

Presentation (PDF 438 KB)

CFDs - The facts, the advantages & how to use them as part of your investment portfolio

Jim Taig, Managing Director, Seismo Market Solutions

This session is for anyone considering or already using CFDs as part of their investment portfolio. Jim will reveal the advantages of direct market access CFDs verses options and warrants, the critical differences between CFD providers and lesser known vital facts that affect CFD performance. You will discover how to protect your portfolio using CFDs and find out how to trade, invest and short-sell using CFDs to produce outstanding returns in rising and falling markets. Example trades that were taken in a variety of market conditions and a proprietary CFD calculator will be used to demonstrate the key points throughout this presentation.

Presentation (PDF 671 KB)

Listed investment companies (LICs): getting back to basics

Jonathan Morgan, Business Development Manager – Equity Markets, ASX

Listed Investment Companies (LICs) have long been a popular choice for investors. Jonathan will run through the key features, benefits and risks of LICs, the differences between LICs and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and what's next for the sector.

Presentation (PDF 532 KB)

ETFs as the core of your portfolio

Robin Bowerman, Principal & Head of Retail, Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd

An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a diversified portfolio of securities constructed using an index approach that can be readily traded on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). The trading speed and flexibility of shares merged with the low cost, diversification of index funds has made ETFs one of the fastest growing investment solutions in the world today, with hundreds of billions of dollars now invested globally using ETFs. Robin will outline the pros and cons of ETFs and how they can be used in your portfolio to manage risk, lower costs and capture market returns.

Presentation (PDF 525 KB)

Listed income rate securities

Brad Newcombe, Senior Research Analyst, FIIG

There are a number of different types of listed interest rate securities (eg hybrid debt securities, corporate bonds, etc) listed on the ASX. Brad will outline the features of each type of security and the advantages and disadvantages of each. He will also define and explain the terminology associated with hybrids eg yield to maturity and provide an example of how an investor can work out whether one security provides better value than another eg how to compare say CBAPA to CBAPB.

Presentation (PDF 606 KB)

Stream 4: Property

Opportunities in a changing residential property market

Mike Anderson, Executive Director, Silverhall

Mike will outline new growth regions providing state by state analysis. By researching the supply and demand imbalances brought about by changing demographics, infrastructure and government policy Silverhall are well placed to select the next capital growth areas. As with most investing, timing is important and Mike will outline the risks and opportunities in the current residential market and when and why to sell a property.

Presentation (PDF 962 KB)

What every landlord needs to know

Ray Milton, REIQ regional manager

You’ve signed on the dotted line and are now the proud owner of an investment property. But what happens next?  How does an investment property turn into a rental property? In this informative session, REIQ regional manager Ray Milton outlines what every landlord needs to know and explains that in the 21st Century having a rental property is much more involved than just collecting the rent.

Presentation (PDF 163 KB)

Property investor excellence – risk management and best practice

Stacey Holt, Real Estate Excellence

Stacey will provide critical risk management and best practice advice on successful rental property investment and questions that should be asked when you are looking for a professional real estate agent to manage your investment. In addition, Stacey will focus on what should be expected from professional property managers, and  why for both parties, ‘if it is not in writing it doesn’t exist’ is the adage you will adopt from this day forward. Both novice and experienced investors will benefit by attending this session.

Presentation (PDF 575 KB)

Navigating the commercial property recovery

Michael Blake, Cromwell

After a period of challenging devaluations and credit restrictions, the commercial property markets have started to show early signs of recovery from the GFC. To take advantage of the next upswing investors should proceed with caution and be aware that the landscape of unlisted and listed property funds has changed.

Presentation (PDF 1.80 MB)

Stream 5: SMSFs

Record keeping

Petrina Stamos, Snelleman Tom

This session is not only a must for those considering establishing a SMSF, but will also serve as a checklist for those who have one. Petrina will outline the important issues to consider; what exactly is involved in managing a SMSF, the process, the key administrative obligations and the trustee’s obligations. Petrina will also cover the legislative requirements of what to keep and for how long, purchasing assets in the fund’s name, book-keeping requirements, auditors and audit requirements, annual returns, the member/trustee dichotomy, compliance issues and updating your trust deed.

Presentation (PDF 182 KB)

Contribution strategies

Phillip Whiteley, Director, Super Plus Australia Pty Ltd

This session will provide an overview of the current contribution rules including the limits, eligibility to contribute and penalties for getting it wrong. It will then provide worked examples of contribution strategies for employees, the self-employed and investors, including salary sacrificing, personal deductible contributions, Government co-contribution and small business CGT concessions.

Presentation (PDF 398 KB)

Paper (PDF 676 KB)

Pension strategies

Graeme Colley, National Technical Manager, ING

Graeme will provide an overview of the current pension rules including conditions of release, benefit types (eg preserved, unpreserved, taxable/non-taxable, etc) pension types and lump sum withdrawals. He will then provide worked examples of pension strategies, including pre-retirement strategies and transition to retirement pensions.

Presentation (PDF 1.25 MB)

Paper (PDF 143 KB)

Estate planning

Rachael Rofe, Dixon Advisory

Rachael will outline who your super dependants are and how to ensure that control and death benefits pass to the right beneficiaries and in the most tax-effective way. Rachael will discuss binding super death benefit nominations and how to avoid family disputes.

Presentation (PDF 338 KB)

Conference Dinner

A recovery without debt

Steve Keen, Associate Professor of Economics & Finance, University of Western Sydney

Every recovery from a recession since 1970 has involved a rising level of private debt compared to incomes. This time, with both businesses and households both debt-saturated, only the government is in a position to run up further debt - and that faces a political constraint in addition to exchange-rate constraints. The recovery promises to be anaemic at best.

Presentation (PDF 458 KB)

Author Index


Session Title


Abernethy, John Investing in turbulent times Sponsor Session
Anderson, Mike Opportunities in a changing residential property market Property
Bedford, Louise Using technical analysis to find high profitability trades Investing in the share market
Bedford, Louise Dive brain-first into sharemarket profits Investing in the share market
Blair, Simon Hot stocks for the new financial year Sponsor session
Blake, Michael Navigating the commercial property recovery Property
Bowerman, Robin ETFs as the core of your portfolio Investment opportunities
Cahill, Matthew The retail sector ASX sectors
Colley, Graeme SMSF pension strategies SMSF
D'Amato, Elio Small companies, big opportunities ASX sectors
Doherty, Andrew Selecting stocks for the long-term portfolio using fundamental analysis Investing in the share market
Keith Foreman Hot stocks for the new financial year Sponsor session
Elliss, Jody Portfolio protection using options and index futures Investing in the share market
English, Andrew REITs - is now the time to consider investing? ASX sectors
Gaden, Matt The end of retirement? Plenary
Goulding, Daniel Elliott wave theory Investing in the share market
Grant, John Information technology sector ASX sectors
Hall, Cameron Diversification with art Sponsor session
Harris, Nick Information technology sector ASX sectors
Holt, Stacey Property investor excellence - risk management and best practice Property
Hull, Alan Financial markets as adaptive systems 1 & 2 Investing in the share market
James, Craig The economic outlook Plenary
Karatsanis, George REITs - is now the time to consider investing? ASX sectors
Keen, Steve A recovery without debt Conference Dinner
Laird, Ty The financial sector ASX sectors
Lee, Julia Managing risk for profitable investment in the share market Investing in the share market
Mayne, Stephen Labor and the shareholder rights agenda Plenary
Milton, Ray What every landlard needs to know Property
Montgomery, Roger What works on Wall Street? Plenary
Montgomery, Roger The formula that works - fundamental analysis made easy Investing in the share market
Morgan, Jonathan LICs: getting back to basics Investment opportunities
Nelson, Tim Electricity markets and emissions trading Investment opportunities
Nemtsas, Jamie How to invest in gold Investment opportunities
Newcombe, Brad Listed income rate securities Investment opportunities
Nicholson, Colin The need for an investment plan Plenary
Padley, Marcus The truth about the stock market Plenary
Pain, Jonathan The new reality Plenary
Pollard, Justine Profitable investing by following the trend Investing in the share market
Rofe, Rachael SMSF estate planning SMSF
Simpson, Mark Agri-resources - the new gold ASX sectors
Stamos, Petrina SMSF record keeping SMSF
Taig, Jim CFDs - the facts, the advantages and how to use them as part of your portfolio Investment opportunities
Whiteley, Phillip SMSF contribution strategies SMSF